Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
